Little White Statistics
Or, “Stats are like bikinis - nice to look at, but don’t tell you the whole story.” -Brent Barry

Here we are again, hopefully finishing up analyzing this batch of games this time. You know the drill, so let’s get right to it.

By the way, we’re trying out a new spam filter over here - if you post a comment that doesn’t show up within a day or two, shoot me an e-mail.

Lakers lead, then their opponent comes back

The second most common type of Laker game (12 occurrences) this season (within the 18 to 28 shot range for Kobe) saw the Lakers pull away to a lead, then their opponent come back. Typically after that (9 times) the game remained close, while twice the Lakers pulled away and once the opponent pulled away.

• January 6th: Lakers 112, Pacers 96; Lakers pull away three times, Pacers come back twice
  • Critical Points: 1st Quarter, Lakers 21-9 run; 2nd Quarter, Pacers 21-4 run; 3rd Quarter, Lakers 27-12 run; 4th Quarter, Pacers 13-2 run; 4th Quarter, Lakers 20-8 run
  • Kobe During Critical Points: 2/3 for 6 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal; 0/3 for 2 points; 4/6 for 12 points, 1 assist; 0/0 for 0 points; 2/4 for 4 points, 1 steal, 3 assists
  • Kobe’s Other Shots: 0/3 in 1st, 0/2 in 2nd, 0/0 in 3rd, 0/0 in 4th
  • Summary: This is an odd game to analyze because the majority of the game was a run for either team - the entire first quarter (though we didn’t consider the Pacers’ opening 9-0 run), the vast majority (10 of 12 minutes) of the second quarter, the entire third quarter, and the entire fourth quarter (first half of it for the Pacers, second half for the Lakers). So while some of the shot attempts above seem high (like Kobe’s 0/3 during the Pacers’ 2nd quarter run), you have to remember that’s over nearly the entire quarter, and is substantially below his season average. Overall, we again see Kobe’s output increase during Laker runs: 8/13 during Laker runs, 0/3 during Pacer runs, and 0/5 otherwise.
• January 23rd: Lakers 91, Spurs 103; Lakers pull away in 1st half, Spurs come back and pull away in 3rd
  • Critical Points: 2nd Quarter, Lakers 16-7 run; 3rd Quarter, Spurs 14-0 run; 3rd Quarter, Lakers 10-2 run; 3rd Quarter, 18-5 Spurs run
  • Kobe During Critical Points: 1/2 for 2 points, 2 assists; 0/5 for 0 points; 3/4 for 7 points, 1 assist, 2 rebounds; 1/1 for 2 points
  • Kobe’s Other Shots: 4/6 in 1st, 2/4 in 2nd, 0/0 in 3rd, 2/6 in 4th
  • Summary: You always have to be wary in generalizing the results from Spurs’ games - I know I’m biased, but the Spurs really are one of the greatest defensive teams around. This game is also unique in that unlike the general trend of the Lakers’ season, in this game, Kobe was the only one who really showed up. Only 8 Lakers scored, only 4 in double figures and only Kobe above 20. That said, this game still carries some of the indicators we’ve been looking for, most notably in the Lakers’ quick mini-burst in the 3rd quarter. Here we see the idea of Kobe coming alive to stop an opponent’s run. It’s arguable that he was trying to fend off the Spurs throughout their 3rd quarter comeback, but regardless it’s apparent that when Kobe started hitting his shorts, the Lakers got back in the game. In this particular instance, the Lakers’ fortunes were tied directly to Kobe, and thus he put them on his shoulders and tried to deliver the win. Against a team like the Spurs, he couldn’t do it alone.I’d like to pause here for a moment and point out how this relates to the very original study we’re referring to. The original idea was that when Kobe shoots too much, his team loses - so he shouldn’t shoot so much. This game is the perfect example of why that isn’t true. When Kobe shoots too much, it’s because his team isn’t getting the job done. In this particular game, his teammates hardly did anything - and as such, Kobe was forced to take more shots. Kobe taking more shots is indicative of him needing to take more shots. It’s not causing his team’s misfortunes, the Lakers are simply more likely to lose in situations where Kobe is forced to shoot more (meaning his team is being threatened). Kobe shoots less in games where the Lakers are never threatened, and if the Lakers are never threatened, they’re far less likely (obviously) to lose.

    In my opinion, the thesis has been proven and there’s no real reason to go ahead. But for the sake of argument, let’s run through a couple more games of different types just to make sure it holds true. In case you’re not aware, when I write, I don’t go back and change anything - this writing is as if you’re sitting on my shoulder watching me discover it as I go along.

• March 18th: Lakers 102, Mavericks 100; Lakers build a huge lead, Mavs mount an incredible comeback
  • Critical Points: Lakers 52-30 run (Lakers’ lead built too steadily from the end of the 1st to the middle of the 3rd to identify smaller runs); Mavericks 23-3 run (3rd and 4th quarters); 4th Quarter, Mavericks 22-12 run
  • Kobe During Critical Points: 6/12 for 15 points, 7 assists; 1/2 for 2 points; 1/3 for 3 points
  • Kobe’s Other Shots: 4/5 in 1st, 0/0 in 2nd, 0/0 in 3rd, 0/0 in 4th
  • Summary: Crazy game, Mavericks come back from 25 down to lose by only 2. Kobe actually sat on the bench during the early part of their comeback run, coming back in to try to fend them off. It appears it wasn’t needed though; his teammates took care of it for him, though it would’ve been nice to see Kobe take a few more shots near the end. That’d further confirm our thesis, but its absence would have to be systematic to threaten it - and so far this is the first instance of it we’ve seen.

Other miscellaneous games

While those two categories make up the majority of the games we’re analyzing, it’s important to touch on the other categories too. The Lakers did have games where they found themselves initially down and had to come back, and they did have games where the opponent just outright pulled away.

• March 4th: Lakers 117, Kings 105; Kings lead throughout, Lakers come back in the fourth
  • Critical Points: 2nd Quarter, Kings 11-0 run; 4th Quarter, Lakers 27-7 run
  • Kobe During Critical Points: 0/3 for 0 points; 3/4 for 17 points (11/12 FT)
  • Kobe’s Other Shots: 1/4 in 1st, 3/3 in 2nd, 4/10 in 3rd, 0/2 in 4th
  • Summary: I was hoping a game like this would come up (remember, I’m choosing these games randomly within the representative categories to ensure statistical validity - although the rules apply oddly in this case considering it’s trends we’re subjectively observing, not straight-up numbers). This game exemplifies an idea I believed, but had not yet observed: is it really Kobe’s shot attempts that go up when his team is challenged, or is it his overall aggressiveness, and the increase in shot attempts is the most numerically observable indicator of this? Here we see it’s really his overall aggressiveness, getting to the line 12 times in the final quarter, keying the Lakers’ pivotal run. The 3rd quarter is notable as well; while we don’t see the Lakers making a run, we do see both teams performing well offensively (57 combined points in the quarter). The downside to using ‘runs’ to analyze a player’s offensive productivity is that if the opposition equals his offensive productivity, then no run occurs despite the player’s heightened performance. Here we see Kobe keying a run, but Sacramento’s offense matches him stride for stride - but note that if Kobe hadn’t increased his output, it likely would’ve been a Sacramento run. The time of the game is notable here: our idea that Kobe increases his offensive output when his team is threatened naturally needs a definition of ‘threaten’, and in this case it needs to note that he responds better in the second half than in the first. Thus, an opponent’s equal performance in the first half and second half will result in different responses from Kobe Bryant.

    Overall, once again, the trend holds true for this game. Kobe is needed, so Kobe attempts to deliver (and succeeds, in this case).

• April 8th: Lakers 103, Blazers 112; Blazers pull away in 2nd
  • Critical Points: 2nd Quarter, Blazers 19-7 run
  • Kobe During Critical Points: 1/6 for 2 points
  • Kobe’s Other Shots: 2/5 in 1st, 2/7 in 2nd, 4/7 in 3rd, 4/8 in 4th
  • Summary: And we’ll close with one of those games every team has. Sometimes even when you do everything right, the ball just doesn’t bounce your way. During a key stretch in the 2nd quarter, Kobe went cold, allowing the Blazers to build a lead that they were able to carry throughout. Throughout the second half, Kobe responds - as we know by now that he will - increasing his offensive output to try to counter the threat, but as in the 3rd quarter of the above Kings game, all the offense in the world can’t help you if the other team’s hitting their shots too. Kobe went for 24 points in the 2nd half and had assists on 10 more, (giving him a role in 34 of the Lakers’ 56 second-half points, a staggering proportion). It wasn’t enough in this case, but the trend, once again, holds true.

It’s pretty rare for a trend to be this explicit. Kobe’s shot attempts reliably go up when his team is threatened, to the point where you can almost pick the point in the game where he goes off without every looking at the box score. For those still a bit confused as to why this study is valid, remember we’re choosing the ‘runs’ based solely on the game progression, without every looking at the individual players’ contributions. So, when we see a single player’s contributions rising whenever there’s a run, we know there must be a correlation between the two.

Only one part left in this study, and then a great big wrap-up post. Next time we’ll look at those 6 games where Kobe attempts 29 or more shots - more than 9 above his season average. Since there are only 6, and since in order to attempt 29 shots he essentially has to be shooting the entire game, we’ll likely look at the characteristics of the games that lead to him shooting more. Then we’ll wrap up this study, then we’ll revisit the Box Score Analysis and look at individual teams’ performances in different quarters, and then maybe we’ll get around to looking at some of the things y’all have requested a look at.

Like I said last time, in this we’re going to choose some representative games from the “Kobe took 18 to 28 shots” group of games. In these games, the Lakers were 28-19 - a winning percentage of .595, down from .900 in the “under 17 shots” category.

To analyze some ‘representative’ games, first we want to see what patterns are frequent in these 47 games that saw Kobe take between 18 and 28 shots. This is a pretty broad range, but it’s not arbitrary: nearly all the winning percentages connected to a certain number of shots in this range (that is, the Lakers’ winning percentage when Kobe takes that many shots) fall in the .5 to .75 range; the only exceptions are 18 shots (winning percentage .333), 21 shots (.400) and 28 (1.000). This is distinct from the other two ranges of shots, but there’s no distinction within this range.

So, what do we observe within this range? 5 distinct trends, with subtrends (which could pretty much encompass any game, really) - the number in parentheses represents how often that particular type of game happened, in games where Kobe took between 18 and 28 shots:

• The Lakers trail, then come back (6).
  • The Lakers then pull away (2).
  • The opponent then pulls away (1).
  • The game remains close until the end (3).
• The Lakers lead, then their opponent comes back (12).
  • The Lakers then pull away (2).
  • The opponent then pulls away (1).
  • The game remains close (9).
• The game stays close, then the Lakers pull away (no opponent comeback) (13).
  • The Lakers pull away in the 1st quarter and hold that lead (3).
  • The Lakers pull away in the 2nd quarter and hold that lead (1).
  • The Lakers pull away in the 3rd quarter and hold that lead (4).
  • The Lakers pull away in the 4th quarter and hold that lead (5).
• The game stays close, then the opponent pulls away (no Laker comeback) (8).
  • The opponent pulls away in the 1st quarter and holds that lead (2).
  • The opponent pulls away in the 2nd quarter and holds that lead (2).
  • The opponent pulls away in the 3rd quarter and holds that lead (3).
  • The opponent pulls away in the 4th quarter and holds that lead (1).
• The game is back-and-forth throughout (8).
  • The game is close throughout (neither team takes a substantial lead) (4).
  • Each team takes a substantial lead at some point, losing it - the game is close at the end (4).

Now, there’s a lot of interesting stuff here. So rather than go in-depth on a small sample of games (like the last portion as the analysis), we’re going to ask two questions about several of the games: (a) where is Kobe during the ‘critical points’ of the games (when the either team pulls away or comes back), and (b) when do most of his shot attempts come? If our hypotheses from earlier in the analysis hold up, we should find that Kobe’s shot attempts increase at these specific, critical times. You may have noticed we’re still not including blowout victories where Kobe plays below-average numbers of minutes, but remember we’re also only looking at games where Kobe attempted between 18 and 28 shots - thus the excluded games wouldn’t be included in this group anyway (given that Kobe nearly never attempts more than 18 shots in a blowout below-average-playtime game).

At first it’s a bit difficult to see what we’re looking for in the below analysis, so in general, we’re choosing the Lakers’ ‘critical points’ in the game (before ever looking at who was involved in the run) and then seeing if Kobe’s shot attempts increased over that time period compared to the rest of the game. Because Kobe’s shot behavior doesn’t impact what we’re choosing as runs, observing increased shot activity from him should indicate that his increase in shot attempts are correlated to Lakers’ runs. There’s more than this, but this is the core of what we’re looking for.

Game stays close, then the Lakers pull away

Let’s start with the most common type of game from the Lakers’ season. 13 times during the 07-08 season, the Lakers found themselves in a fairly close game, only to eventually pull away and win. 4 times this happened in the first half (three times in the first quarter, once in the second), 9 times it happened in the second half (four times in the third quarter, five in the fourth). These games:

• December 16th: Lakers 113, Clippers 92; Lakers pull away in the first quarter
  • Critical Points: 1st Quarter, Lakers 23-5 run
  • Kobe During Critical Points: 5/8 for 11 points, 5 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 turnover
  • Kobe’s Other Shots: 0/1 in 1st, 2/3 in 2nd, 1/4 in 3rd, 3/4 in 4th
  • Summary: As expected, Kobe’s shots are up during the run, low otherwise
• December 23rd: Lakers 95, Knicks 90; Lakers pull away throughout, then are threatened late
  • Critical Points: 1st Quarter, Lakers 16-11 run; 2nd Quarter, Lakers 25-12 run; 3rd Quarter, Lakers 15-8 run; 4th Quarter, Lakers 6-4 run (follows a 13-2 Knicks run to pull within 5)
  • Kobe During Critical Points: 3/5 for 10 points; 2/6 for 5 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal; 2/3 for 6 points; 2/4 for 4 points
  • Kobe’s Other Shots: 1/4 in 1st, 0/0 in 2nd, 0/2 in 3rd, 3/3 in 4th
  • Summary: Interestingly, a run ensues when Kobe’s shooting but isn’t hitting his shots (2nd quarter). The final run is more notable than 4 points makes it seem: it took place over only 2 minutes and sealed the victory for the Lakers.
• November 10: Lakers 107, Wolves 93; Lakers pull away in the third quarter
  • Critical Points: 3rd Quarter, Lakers 12-3 run; 4th Quarter, 11-3 run (following 11-6 Wolves run to pull within 6)
  • Kobe During Critical Points: 1/1 for 2 points, 3 assists; 1/1 for 7 points
  • Kobe’s Other Shots: 5/8 in 1st, 0/2 in 2nd, 1/2 in 3rd, 1/4 in 4th
  • Summary: An interesting game; instead of Kobe’s shot attempts being high during runs, they’re highest during the first quarter, which remains fairly close. It’s notable, though, that the rest of the Lakers were 5/10 in the 1st with 5 turnovers - Kobe performance here may have kept them in the game. This is also an interesting example of Kobe possibly sparking a run without his FGAs increasing: despite taking only 1 shot in both runs, he was responsible for 8 of the first run’s 12 points and 7 of the second run’s 11 points.
• December 14: Lakers 102, Spurs 97; Lakers pull away in the fourth quarter
  • Critical Points: 4th Quarter, Lakers 20-8 run
  • Kobe During Critical Points: 3/4 for 7 points, 1 assist
  • Kobe’s Other Shots: 4/8 in 1st, 1/3 in 2nd, 2/8 in 3rd, 0/0 in 4th
  • Summary: Another game outside the mold of the first two, Kobe’s 3rd quarter performance begs analysis. In the 3rd quarter, the Spurs outscored the Lakers by 10 to go from an 8-point deficit to a 2-point lead entering the 4th quarter. In our hypothesis, this represents a time when Kobe would theoretically respond - his increased shot attempts during this time indicate that this hypothesis should apply to this situation as well. Either from the Spurs’ superior defense or lady luck forgetting about Kobe for a night, in this particular instance the shots didn’t fall - but success isn’t what we’re interested in here, only effort. When the Lakers were threatened, it appears that Kobe again tried to carry them out of it; only this time, he didn’t succeed the first time, only the second (accounting for 10 of the 20 points in the final run).

In the next entry we’ll finish analyzing these games and see if the trend observed here holds true. So far, however, it certainly appears that our hypothesis that Kobe’s shot attempts increase at critical points in the game has held true through these first four games.